Sample size estimation of fruit maturation for Arabica’s coffee

Abstract

This study aimed at establishing the ideal sample size for evaluating the maturation cycle in Coffea arabica, and investigating the errors associated with different sample sizes, in addition to verifying the possibility of using the clustering method to separate genotypes according to the maturation stage. Two experiments were analyzed: one with F2:3 progenies using visual maturation assessment through fruit counting, and another with cultivars using image processing for maturation assessment. To determine the ideal sample size for this trait, we used the estimation of the errors associated with maturation, using the bootstrap technique. Subsequently, the K-means algorithm was tested as an alternative for clustering genotypes into maturation classes. The application of the bootstrap technique in order to estimate the error associated with maturation revealed that the adoption of a 450-mL sample size resulted in an associated error of approximately 5%, indicating that it is an adequate size for character assessment. The implementation of K-means as a clustering tool offers a promising perspective for Arabica coffee plant breeding programs. A more comprehensive analysis, which not only assesses the proportion of ripe fruits, but also considers the distribution of different maturation stages, provides a more accurate understanding of the maturation process. This allows a more precise identification of genotypes with the most suitable performance for different growing conditions, as well as enabling adjustments in harvest management and post-harvest processing, optimizing coffee quality.