Resumo:
Coffee is among the most significant products in Brazil. Minas Gerais is the largest state producer of Arabica coffee. Coffee activity has excellent growth potential, which justifies the identification of new areas for expansion of the culture. This study aimed to determine factors that affect the spatial distribution of coffee plantations the most, as well as to identify areas with a greater aptitude for its expansion in the region of the Matas de Minas (63 municipalities). The MaxEnt software was used to elaborate a model capable of describing the area with the highest potential for estimating the probability of coffee adequacy. The elaboration of the model considered the records of occurrence, climatic and topographic variables of Matas de Minas, the second largest state producing region. The area under the curve (AUC), the omission rate and the Jackknife test were used for validation and analysis of the model. The model was accurate with an AUC of 0.816 and omission rate of 0.54% for the ‘test’. It was identified that the potential distribution of coffee in Matas de Minas is determined by changes in the annual maximum temperature, although it did not generate a significant gain when omitted, accounting for a considerable loss in the model. However, the most influential variables on the delineation of distribution were, the altitude and the annual average temperature. The most favorable areas for expansion of coffee culture in the Matas de Minas were found in the vicinity of the region of Alto Caparaó.
