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Geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in climate change scenarios

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dc.contributor.author Alfonsi, Waldenilza Monteiro Vital
dc.contributor.author Coltri, Priscila Pereira
dc.contributor.author Zullo Júnior, Jurandir
dc.contributor.author Patrício, Flávia Rodrigues Alves
dc.contributor.author Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle
dc.contributor.author Shinji, Kaio
dc.contributor.author Alfonsi, Eduardo Lauriano
dc.contributor.author Koga-Vicente, Andrea
dc.date.accessioned 2021-12-06T13:50:23Z
dc.date.available 2021-12-06T13:50:23Z
dc.date.issued 2019
dc.identifier.citation ALFONSI, W. M. V. et al. Geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in climate change scenarios. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, Brasília, v. 54, p. 1-11, 2019. pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn 1678-3921
dc.identifier.uri https://doi. org/10.1590/S1678-3921.pab2019.v54.00273 pt_BR
dc.identifier.uri http://www.sbicafe.ufv.br/handle/123456789/12917
dc.description.abstract The objective of this work was to simulate the geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in Coffea arabica, using data of two regional climate models, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta- MIROC5. The scenario of high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5 W m-2) was used for the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil, for current and future climate scenarios. The behavior of six different regression equations for incubation period (IP), available in the literature, was also analyzed as affected by data from the regional climate models. The results indicate the possibility of an increase in the affected area in the studied region, When the IP is less than 19 days, from 0.5% for Eta-MIROC5 to 14.2% for Eta- HadGEM2-ES. The severity of coffee leaf rust in future scenarios should increase in the hottest and wettest months of the year, extending to the driest and coldest months. The potential of rust infection is estimated differently by the studied equations. In higher temperature scenarios, the Kushalappa & Martins equation indicates a very high severity potential. pt_BR
dc.format pdf pt_BR
dc.language.iso en pt_BR
dc.publisher Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa pt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofseries Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira;v.54, 2019
dc.rights Open Access pt_BR
dc.subject Coffea arabica pt_BR
dc.subject Hemileia vastatrix pt_BR
dc.subject Café arábica pt_BR
dc.subject Severidade da doença pt_BR
dc.subject Modelos climáticos regionais pt_BR
dc.subject Análises espaciais pt_BR
dc.subject.classification Cafeicultura::Pragas, doenças e plantas daninhas pt_BR
dc.title Geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in climate change scenarios pt_BR
dc.type Artigo pt_BR

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